New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar is middle-of-the-pack among the majors (ranked #4 of 8), with a strength score of +2. Its biggest support is interest rates: at around 2.6%, it pays more than most other major economies — and money tends to move toward currencies that pay more. Big global investors are mostly betting against it, which adds to the pressure. It tends to do well when markets feel confident, and the mood is upbeat right now — a tailwind. It also earns a lot from exporting farm goods like dairy, and firm prices for those are giving it an extra lift. Over the past few weeks it has been gradually weakening. One caution: after that run it now looks stretched — expensive versus its own recent range — which raises the risk of a pullback.